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Welcome to Convex Reads

Convex Reads is a curated digital garden of essays, research papers, and conversations exploring technology, systems thinking, and ideas with asymmetric upside.

Definite optimism as human capital

Innovation grows when people imagine a better future and connect with the material world, like manufacturing and engineering. Losing industrial jobs means fewer young people learn important skills, which slows technological progress. To boost growth, we need more hopeful stories about technology and more hands-on experience with how things are made.

Predicting AI job exposure

It is very hard to predict how AI will change jobs because jobs and businesses evolve in complex and unexpected ways. Past technology waves show that automation often changes job tasks rather than simply replacing jobs. Trying to score or chart AI exposure by job or industry usually misses these deeper shifts and can be misleading.

Have Another Drink!

A government study claims that even low alcohol intake has no health benefits and increases mortality risk. However, the study's data and statistical methods are unclear and questionable. Therefore, its conclusions about alcohol risks are not reliable.

The AI Engineering Skills Map

Andrew Ng shares the four key AI engineering skills everyone should learn: building and deploying AI apps, software engineering basics, using coding agents, and shaping the build. These skills help developers create better AI software and work well with fast-changing tools. Continuous learning is important because AI keeps evolving quickly.

Agents, Loops, Graphs. Everything You Need to Know in One Place.

Agents plan and act on tasks without step-by-step help, loops keep working until the job is truly done, and graphs run many tasks at once to finish faster. Each builds on the last to make AI work smarter and more reliable. Knowing when and how to use these tools helps you get better results with less effort.

Power 2026

Power prices are set by the cost of producing the last unit of electricity needed to meet demand, usually from natural gas or coal plants. Data centers and renewables affect demand and supply, sometimes lowering prices or even causing negative prices. Understanding these market dynamics helps investors, traders, and consumers make better decisions about energy use and power plant development.

AI and the automation of work

Generative AI and large language models will change how we automate work, just like past technologies did. While some jobs will disappear, new ones will also appear, even if we can't predict them yet. This process is not new, and history shows that automation usually creates more jobs over time, not fewer.

The New SDLC With Vibe Coding

AI is changing software development from writing code to expressing intent and guiding intelligent systems. Developers now shift from hands-on coding to overseeing AI agents within structured processes. Success depends on balancing casual \"vibe coding\" with disciplined \"agentic engineering\" to build reliable software.

Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40, 90, Or 100 Percent Of Performance?

Asset allocation policy explains about 90% of a fund's return changes over time but only about 40% of the differences in returns between funds. On average, asset allocation accounts for a little more than 100% of the overall return level. This means policy is very important for understanding fund performance across time and somewhat important for comparing different funds.

How LLMs Actually Work

Large language models understand text by turning words into numbers called tokens, then giving each token meaning through embeddings and position information. They use attention to let tokens share information and a feed-forward network to process each token independently. Finally, the model predicts the next token step-by-step, learning from huge amounts of text to get better at this task.

Making AI Work: Leadership, Lab, and Crowd

AI can significantly boost worker productivity, with many reporting that it reduces task time dramatically. However, the individual use of AI does not automatically lead to better organizational performance, as many workers are unsure how to apply it effectively. Companies need strong leadership and centralized efforts to guide AI integration and foster innovation among employees.

The Math Behind Position Sizing: How Much Should You Really Invest Per Trade?

The Kelly Criterion helps investors decide how much to invest or risk per trade to maximize growth while managing risk. Using full Kelly can be too aggressive, so many use half Kelly for safer, steady gains. Risk of ruin calculations show how increasing position size greatly raises the chance of losing everything.

Forensic Workshop

Financial statements can hide problems like falling cash flow and rising debts, which signal capital loss before it is public. Companies may use tricky accounting to show growth and profits, while real liquidity and value decline. Forensic checks focus on warning signs like unbilled revenue growth, rising receivables, and cash flow gaps to spot risks early.

What I Learned About Billionaires at Jeff Bezos’s Private Retreat

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos live in a world where money removes consequences and rules. This freedom makes them disconnected from empathy and the real effects of their actions. Their immense wealth means they act without needing to change the world, as their success is assured.

Myrmikan Research

Rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are causing volatility in gold and oil markets. The U.S. is focused on protecting its interests, which may split the world into competing trade spheres with different energy prices. This situation will likely lead to inflation, economic strain, and a complex future for global trade and investment.

151 Trading Strategies

The book \"151 Trading Strategies\" by Zura Kakushadze and Juan Andres Serur aims to help academics, practitioners, and aspiring traders by describing various trading strategies without duplicating existing literature or including extensive empirical studies. It provides references for deeper analysis and includes source code for out-of-sample backtesting. The authors hope readers find the content enjoyable and useful for their trading research.

Long-Term Money

Each generation works hard to make life easier for the next, creating more comfort and opportunities. What looks like being spoiled is really a sign of progress and hard work from the past. Our children are lucky to face different problems than we did, thanks to those who came before.

Shattered Assumptions And The Energy Quandary

The ongoing Iran war and global tensions have made energy prices very unstable and risky. Policymakers might limit energy exports or boost coal use to manage shortages, affecting markets and politics. Investors should prefer energy producers in stable countries and watch for shifts if the conflict ends peacefully.

Untitled

Trump's Gamble

The U.S. aims to control Iran and its oil to weaken rivals like China and Russia while supporting Israel’s goals. Gold prices have stayed low despite Middle East tensions, likely due to global liquidity issues and Iran’s use of gold to avoid sanctions. The outcome in Iran will impact the U.S. dollar’s future and could lead to major economic changes worldwide.

Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value

The U.S. stock market has been supported by passive investing and buybacks, pushing valuations above long-term averages. Rising interest rates have not lowered stock prices as expected, showing a shift in market dynamics. This makes the market fragile and prone to sharp, deep crashes when investor sentiment changes.

Why Smart People Believe Stupid Things

Smart people often believe wrong things because intelligence can serve goals other than truth, like status or belonging. Skilled reasoning lets them justify beliefs they want to hold, not what is true. Humility and curiosity, not raw smarts, steer intelligence toward truth.

Both Sides Now

Berkshire Hathaway is financially strong and earns solid profits on its large equity base. The company smartly buys stocks when prices are low and sells when prices rise, helping its growth. Its stock value and intrinsic worth have grown steadily, making it a good investment compared to the broader market.

Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World

Financial markets have changed a lot over the centuries, affected by wars, inflation, and economic growth. Stock and bond returns varied with historical events, with strong growth after World War II and a golden age starting in the 1980s. Today, global stock market value is larger than the world economy, showing the importance of financial markets worldwide.

Constellation Software – Deep Dive, AI, Valuation

Constellation Software focuses on reliable, mission-critical software with high customer retention and low disruption risk from AI. Its decentralized model and focus on vertical markets create strong competitive moats and steady growth. The main investment risk is uncertain AI impact, but the company’s long-term value depends on maintaining its core advantages.

Antidote to Slop: An Archive of Life-Changing Material

This website offers a growing collection of life-changing articles and videos. It includes topics on life, art, business, and inspiring interviews. The content is free to access and regularly updated for education and personal growth.

Mutual Fund Selection When Borrowing Is Restricted: On the Virtues of the Generalized Geometric Mean

The article shows that the geometric mean (GM) is a better way to choose mutual funds when borrowing is limited. Using GM to rank funds leads to higher investor returns than using the Sharpe ratio or alpha. This method works well for different risk preferences and improves long-term investment decisions.

The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries Of Evidence

The 60/40 stock-bond portfolio often loses value during downturns, while DAR4020 and trend-following strategies offer better protection. DAR4020 acts quickly in market drops, and trend-following performs well over time, making their combination more effective. Gold does not provide reliable defense, so combining these strategies can improve portfolio safety across different economic conditions.

The Flow Show: Ai-Awe To Ai-Poor & Other Great Rotations

This document from BofA Securities offers general information for its clients and may involve potential conflicts of interest. The report's views might differ from other BofA business units and are not guaranteed to be accurate or updated. Redistribution is prohibited without permission, and certain trading actions may be limited by regulations.

The Universal Code - Everything is Compute

Everything in the universe is a form of computation that grows smarter by compressing complexity into simple truths. As intelligence becomes faster and more efficient, old systems like institutions and markets struggle to keep up. Humans remain important because they bring meaning and coordination that machines cannot replicate.

Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken And How To Make It Work For Everyone

The personal finance system is designed to benefit sellers, not buyers, by promoting complex products with hidden costs. Simple, clear financial products like term insurance and select mutual funds are safer choices. Understanding this helps you avoid being misled and protect your money.

How to fix your entire personal brand in 1 day

Personal branding is about making people instantly see why they should pay attention to you, not just posting good content. To fix your brand fast, find your unique position, clearly state what makes you different, show your repeatable method, and concentrate your proof of success. Doing this makes you memorable and trusted, helping your audience and business grow quickly.

How to Be a Better Investor Without Knowing Finance

Investing well is more about controlling your emotions than knowing complex finance. Buy when others panic and sell when others feel like geniuses. Avoid making big decisions during life stress and stick to a simple, steady plan.

The Complete Guide: How to Become an AI Agent Engineer in 2026

To become an AI agent engineer, learn to build agents with core parts: trigger, loop, and tools through hands-on projects. Focus on real-world skills like API integration, proactive actions, and production readiness with observability. Use frameworks like Claude Agent SDK for speed and LangGraph for complex workflows to create reliable, scalable AI systems.

The Art Of Building An Extraordinary Social Life And Surrounding Yourself With Winners

Building a strong social life helps you connect with winners and improves your quality of life. Focus on being positive, useful, and true to yourself to create meaningful relationships. Surrounding yourself with multiple social circles gives you support, knowledge, and new opportunities.

how to master AI in 30 days (the exact roadmap)

The text explains how to learn AI quickly in 30 days. It gives a clear step-by-step plan to follow. The goal is to help anyone become good at AI fast.

How to think like a strategic genius (5d thinking)

Thinking shapes your life, and most people get stuck in narrow or one-sided views. Genius thinking means seeing many perspectives deeply and staying open to new ideas. To think like a genius, grow your knowledge broadly, deepen your understanding, and balance inner and outer views of yourself and the world.

How to Do Great Work

To do great work, focus on projects that deeply interest you and work hard on them. Try many different things to discover what suits you best, even if others don't see their value. Great ideas often come from persistent effort, curiosity, and seeing problems in new ways.

How To Build a Profitable Personal Brand (In Just 7 Days)

Building a personal brand starts with knowing yourself and what you stand for. Use your unique voice and style to connect with your audience and build trust. A strong brand gives you freedom to create, impact others, and live on your own terms.

How To Win \"The Game\" Of Corporate America

Success in Corporate America is about being visible, influential, and avoiding low-value tasks. Build relationships with mentors and sponsors who can advocate for you. Always network and treat your career like a business to open new opportunities.

How To Be A Man

Being a man means showing respect, taking responsibility, and always striving to improve yourself. Value close relationships, stay true to your word, and handle challenges with calm and confidence. Focus on meaningful experiences, health, and kindness while avoiding distractions and negativity.

How To Correctly Reason About A Market Maker

A market maker earns money by setting bid and ask prices and managing risks like inventory and volatility. They adjust spreads and quote skew based on market data and inventory to balance profit and risk. When limits are reached, they stop quoting to avoid losses, making this a practical system for various markets.

Understanding Edge

Edge in trading means having a small advantage that, with many trades, leads to consistent profits over time. Managing risk well and understanding volatility are key to making sure this edge pays off. True edges are rare and hard to prove, so careful analysis and many trials are needed to succeed.

Become Technical in 1 Day

Coding agents help you work with code by running commands and managing files automatically. They use system prompts and custom instructions to understand your project and fix errors. You give them context, and they can test, debug, and even deploy your code with little technical knowledge needed.

What you need to know to build with coding agents, if you're not technical

Coding agents help you build software without needing to know complex commands by using AI to interact with your computer's tools. They use system prompts and skills stored in hidden files to understand your instructions and work on projects, including managing code changes with Git. These agents can also help debug and deploy your code by running tests and fixing errors based on your feedback.

vibe coding: a practical guide for literally everyone

Vibe coding means using AI to write code so you can focus on what to build. Break work into small features, test after every change, and iterate with clear specs. Non-coders can use agents and clear user stories to have the AI build and refine apps for them.

Yearbook 2026

In 2025, Indian markets underperformed emerging markets, but key funds like HDFC Small Cap and Mid Cap showed strong long-term returns. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in these funds yielded high compound annual growth rates over 5 to 15 years. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but disciplined investing proved beneficial.

How to figure out what to do with your life

Julian Shapiro suggests listing your core values to decide what to focus on in life. He emphasizes choosing projects that best match your current values to avoid future regret. This approach helps you stay true to yourself and find lasting fulfillment.

Words without teeth

Laws and regulations alone cannot stop wrongdoing unless breaking them brings real and certain punishment. In India's financial markets, weak enforcement lets dishonest sellers keep harming customers without serious consequences. To protect people, authorities must enforce rules strictly and punish offenders harshly, not just make more rules.