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Welcome to Convex Reads

Convex Reads is a curated digital garden of essays, research papers, and conversations exploring technology, systems thinking, and ideas with asymmetric upside.

Have Another Drink!

A government study claims that even low alcohol intake has no health benefits and increases mortality risk. However, the study's data and statistical methods are unclear and questionable. Therefore, its conclusions about alcohol risks are not reliable.

The AI Engineering Skills Map

Andrew Ng shares the four key AI engineering skills everyone should learn: building and deploying AI apps, software engineering basics, using coding agents, and shaping the build. These skills help developers create better AI software and work well with fast-changing tools. Continuous learning is important because AI keeps evolving quickly.

Power 2026

Power prices are set by the cost of producing the last unit of electricity needed to meet demand, usually from natural gas or coal plants. Data centers and renewables affect demand and supply, sometimes lowering prices or even causing negative prices. Understanding these market dynamics helps investors, traders, and consumers make better decisions about energy use and power plant development.

Agents, Loops, Graphs. Everything You Need to Know in One Place.

Agents plan and act on tasks without step-by-step help, loops keep working until the job is truly done, and graphs run many tasks at once to finish faster. Each builds on the last to make AI work smarter and more reliable. Knowing when and how to use these tools helps you get better results with less effort.

The New SDLC With Vibe Coding

AI is changing software development from writing code to expressing intent and guiding intelligent systems. Developers now shift from hands-on coding to overseeing AI agents within structured processes. Success depends on balancing casual \"vibe coding\" with disciplined \"agentic engineering\" to build reliable software.

How LLMs Actually Work

Large language models understand text by turning words into numbers called tokens, then giving each token meaning through embeddings and position information. They use attention to let tokens share information and a feed-forward network to process each token independently. Finally, the model predicts the next token step-by-step, learning from huge amounts of text to get better at this task.

Predicting AI job exposure

It is very hard to predict how AI will change jobs because jobs and businesses evolve in complex and unexpected ways. Past technology waves show that automation often changes job tasks rather than simply replacing jobs. Trying to score or chart AI exposure by job or industry usually misses these deeper shifts and can be misleading.

Forensic Workshop

Financial statements can hide problems like falling cash flow and rising debts, which signal capital loss before it is public. Companies may use tricky accounting to show growth and profits, while real liquidity and value decline. Forensic checks focus on warning signs like unbilled revenue growth, rising receivables, and cash flow gaps to spot risks early.

The Math Behind Position Sizing: How Much Should You Really Invest Per Trade?

The Kelly Criterion helps investors decide how much to invest or risk per trade to maximize growth while managing risk. Using full Kelly can be too aggressive, so many use half Kelly for safer, steady gains. Risk of ruin calculations show how increasing position size greatly raises the chance of losing everything.

What I Learned About Billionaires at Jeff Bezos’s Private Retreat

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos live in a world where money removes consequences and rules. This freedom makes them disconnected from empathy and the real effects of their actions. Their immense wealth means they act without needing to change the world, as their success is assured.

Myrmikan Research

Rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are causing volatility in gold and oil markets. The U.S. is focused on protecting its interests, which may split the world into competing trade spheres with different energy prices. This situation will likely lead to inflation, economic strain, and a complex future for global trade and investment.

Long-Term Money

Each generation works hard to make life easier for the next, creating more comfort and opportunities. What looks like being spoiled is really a sign of progress and hard work from the past. Our children are lucky to face different problems than we did, thanks to those who came before.

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Shattered Assumptions And The Energy Quandary

The ongoing Iran war and global tensions have made energy prices very unstable and risky. Policymakers might limit energy exports or boost coal use to manage shortages, affecting markets and politics. Investors should prefer energy producers in stable countries and watch for shifts if the conflict ends peacefully.

Trump's Gamble

The U.S. aims to control Iran and its oil to weaken rivals like China and Russia while supporting Israel’s goals. Gold prices have stayed low despite Middle East tensions, likely due to global liquidity issues and Iran’s use of gold to avoid sanctions. The outcome in Iran will impact the U.S. dollar’s future and could lead to major economic changes worldwide.

Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value

The U.S. stock market has been supported by passive investing and buybacks, pushing valuations above long-term averages. Rising interest rates have not lowered stock prices as expected, showing a shift in market dynamics. This makes the market fragile and prone to sharp, deep crashes when investor sentiment changes.

Both Sides Now

Berkshire Hathaway is financially strong and earns solid profits on its large equity base. The company smartly buys stocks when prices are low and sells when prices rise, helping its growth. Its stock value and intrinsic worth have grown steadily, making it a good investment compared to the broader market.

Constellation Software – Deep Dive, AI, Valuation

Constellation Software focuses on reliable, mission-critical software with high customer retention and low disruption risk from AI. Its decentralized model and focus on vertical markets create strong competitive moats and steady growth. The main investment risk is uncertain AI impact, but the company’s long-term value depends on maintaining its core advantages.

Mutual Fund Selection When Borrowing Is Restricted: On the Virtues of the Generalized Geometric Mean

The article shows that the geometric mean (GM) is a better way to choose mutual funds when borrowing is limited. Using GM to rank funds leads to higher investor returns than using the Sharpe ratio or alpha. This method works well for different risk preferences and improves long-term investment decisions.

The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries Of Evidence

The 60/40 stock-bond portfolio often loses value during downturns, while DAR4020 and trend-following strategies offer better protection. DAR4020 acts quickly in market drops, and trend-following performs well over time, making their combination more effective. Gold does not provide reliable defense, so combining these strategies can improve portfolio safety across different economic conditions.

The Flow Show: Ai-Awe To Ai-Poor & Other Great Rotations

This document from BofA Securities offers general information for its clients and may involve potential conflicts of interest. The report's views might differ from other BofA business units and are not guaranteed to be accurate or updated. Redistribution is prohibited without permission, and certain trading actions may be limited by regulations.

Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken And How To Make It Work For Everyone

The personal finance system is designed to benefit sellers, not buyers, by promoting complex products with hidden costs. Simple, clear financial products like term insurance and select mutual funds are safer choices. Understanding this helps you avoid being misled and protect your money.

The Universal Code - Everything is Compute

Everything in the universe is a form of computation that grows smarter by compressing complexity into simple truths. As intelligence becomes faster and more efficient, old systems like institutions and markets struggle to keep up. Humans remain important because they bring meaning and coordination that machines cannot replicate.

How to Be a Better Investor Without Knowing Finance

Investing well is more about controlling your emotions than knowing complex finance. Buy when others panic and sell when others feel like geniuses. Avoid making big decisions during life stress and stick to a simple, steady plan.

How to fix your entire personal brand in 1 day

Personal branding is about making people instantly see why they should pay attention to you, not just posting good content. To fix your brand fast, find your unique position, clearly state what makes you different, show your repeatable method, and concentrate your proof of success. Doing this makes you memorable and trusted, helping your audience and business grow quickly.

Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World

Financial markets have changed a lot over the centuries, affected by wars, inflation, and economic growth. Stock and bond returns varied with historical events, with strong growth after World War II and a golden age starting in the 1980s. Today, global stock market value is larger than the world economy, showing the importance of financial markets worldwide.

How to think like a strategic genius (5d thinking)

Thinking shapes your life, and most people get stuck in narrow or one-sided views. Genius thinking means seeing many perspectives deeply and staying open to new ideas. To think like a genius, grow your knowledge broadly, deepen your understanding, and balance inner and outer views of yourself and the world.

how to master AI in 30 days (the exact roadmap)

The text explains how to learn AI quickly in 30 days. It gives a clear step-by-step plan to follow. The goal is to help anyone become good at AI fast.

The Art Of Building An Extraordinary Social Life And Surrounding Yourself With Winners

Building a strong social life helps you connect with winners and improves your quality of life. Focus on being positive, useful, and true to yourself to create meaningful relationships. Surrounding yourself with multiple social circles gives you support, knowledge, and new opportunities.

The Complete Guide: How to Become an AI Agent Engineer in 2026

To become an AI agent engineer, learn to build agents with core parts: trigger, loop, and tools through hands-on projects. Focus on real-world skills like API integration, proactive actions, and production readiness with observability. Use frameworks like Claude Agent SDK for speed and LangGraph for complex workflows to create reliable, scalable AI systems.

How To Build a Profitable Personal Brand (In Just 7 Days)

Building a personal brand starts with knowing yourself and what you stand for. Use your unique voice and style to connect with your audience and build trust. A strong brand gives you freedom to create, impact others, and live on your own terms.

Understanding Edge

Edge in trading means having a small advantage that, with many trades, leads to consistent profits over time. Managing risk well and understanding volatility are key to making sure this edge pays off. True edges are rare and hard to prove, so careful analysis and many trials are needed to succeed.

How To Correctly Reason About A Market Maker

A market maker earns money by setting bid and ask prices and managing risks like inventory and volatility. They adjust spreads and quote skew based on market data and inventory to balance profit and risk. When limits are reached, they stop quoting to avoid losses, making this a practical system for various markets.

How To Be A Man

Being a man means showing respect, taking responsibility, and always striving to improve yourself. Value close relationships, stay true to your word, and handle challenges with calm and confidence. Focus on meaningful experiences, health, and kindness while avoiding distractions and negativity.

How To Win \"The Game\" Of Corporate America

Success in Corporate America is about being visible, influential, and avoiding low-value tasks. Build relationships with mentors and sponsors who can advocate for you. Always network and treat your career like a business to open new opportunities.

Antidote to Slop: An Archive of Life-Changing Material

This website offers a growing collection of life-changing articles and videos. It includes topics on life, art, business, and inspiring interviews. The content is free to access and regularly updated for education and personal growth.

What you need to know to build with coding agents, if you're not technical

Coding agents help you build software without needing to know complex commands by using AI to interact with your computer's tools. They use system prompts and skills stored in hidden files to understand your instructions and work on projects, including managing code changes with Git. These agents can also help debug and deploy your code by running tests and fixing errors based on your feedback.

Become Technical in 1 Day

Coding agents help you work with code by running commands and managing files automatically. They use system prompts and custom instructions to understand your project and fix errors. You give them context, and they can test, debug, and even deploy your code with little technical knowledge needed.

Words without teeth

Laws and regulations alone cannot stop wrongdoing unless breaking them brings real and certain punishment. In India's financial markets, weak enforcement lets dishonest sellers keep harming customers without serious consequences. To protect people, authorities must enforce rules strictly and punish offenders harshly, not just make more rules.

How to figure out what to do with your life

Julian Shapiro suggests listing your core values to decide what to focus on in life. He emphasizes choosing projects that best match your current values to avoid future regret. This approach helps you stay true to yourself and find lasting fulfillment.

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The cartoonist who got it right

Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, shared simple and clear advice on money in just 87 words. His tips focus on discipline, patience, and avoiding complexity to build wealth. Adams showed that smart investing does not need to be complicated or clever.

Myrmikan Research

Gold is the best measure of real value because it shows true changes in money, unlike the dollar which loses value over time. Recent market gains look smaller when measured in gold, revealing bubbles and crashes more clearly. Although gold prices are volatile, they lead changes in other prices and will likely keep rising faster than commodities.

Yearbook 2026

In 2025, Indian markets underperformed emerging markets, but key funds like HDFC Small Cap and Mid Cap showed strong long-term returns. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in these funds yielded high compound annual growth rates over 5 to 15 years. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but disciplined investing proved beneficial.

How to Make Realistic Longform AI Videos (Prompts Included)

This guide explains how to create realistic long AI videos by making imperfect base images and controlling speech pacing. It shows how to break scripts into 55-60 syllable chunks for natural flow and add subtle movements to make characters look real. Finally, it recommends cleaning audio with tools like Adobe Podcast and covering jump cuts with B-roll for smooth, believable videos.

22 Pieces of Career Advice They Don't Teach You in School

To succeed in your career, be reliable, create value, and focus on doing the work. Surround yourself with talented people and learn from feedback to grow faster. Remember, your employer may not be loyal, so take charge of your own path and act on good advice.

How to fix your entire life in 1 day

To change your life, you must first change who you are, not just your actions. Spend one day deeply questioning your goals and identity to find true clarity. Then, use that insight to create clear, meaningful goals that guide your new path.

Indian Banking Sector: A Trend Analysis

Indian banks have grown rapidly since 2005, with deposits and loans increasing strongly and public sector banks regaining market share. The credit-deposit ratio rose from 53% in 2000 to 82% in 2025, showing deeper financial development but also regional imbalances. Some eastern states lag behind in credit use, while southern and western regions lead with higher banking activity.

India Equity Strategy Playbook: The Coming Upside Surprise

Morgan Stanley argues Indian equities are set for upside surprise. Macro indicators, earnings momentum, and valuations all look supportive. The report sees catalysts that could drive strong returns into 2026.